Consensus forecast for 2016 Southwest monsoon rainfall over south Asia
Eighth Session of
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8)
Colombo, Sri Lanka, 25-26 April 2016
The climate outlook for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was finalized during the eighth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8), held at Colombo, Sri Lankaduring 25-26 April 2016 attended by experts from the South Asian countries. The Forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean, winter and spring Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover and land surface temperature anomalies.
Above-normal rainfall is likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over much of South Asia. More specifically:
· Above-normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of central and western parts of South Asia.
· Below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern part of the peninsula.
· Normal rainfall is likely over the remaining areas.
This consensus outlook for the 2016 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from the participating NMSs and from around the world. The strong El Niño conditions that prevailed over the Pacific since July, 2015 have now weakened to moderate level. There is strong consensus among experts that El Niño conditions will continue to weaken and reach neutral level by the middle of the southwest monsoon season. There is a possibility of La Niña conditions developing in the later part of the season, but it is recognized that there is uncertainty about its development and timing. There is also consensus that the declining El Niño conditions will not have any adverse impacts on the southwest monsoon rainfall over the region. Other regional and global factors that can affect the region were also considered in arriving at this consensus outlook.
The outlook suggests that during the 2016 southwest monsoon season, normal rainfall is likely over most parts of Maldives, however few island on southwest of the country is likely to have slightly above normal rainfall. For more information on this forecast, please contact Maldives Meteorological Service.