South Asian Climate Outlook
2018 southwest monsoon rainfall consensus outlook over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from the participating National Meteorological Services (NMSs) and from around the world. Other regional and global factors that may affect the region were also considered in arriving at this consensus outlook.
The outlook suggests that during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September), near normal rainfall is likely over central to northern parts of Maldives (See figure below). On the other hand, below normal rainfall is expected for the southern parts of the Maldives (See figure below). For further information and updates, Maldives Meteorological Service can be contacted.
Fig.1. Probability of the most likely category for the 2018 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia based on this consensus statement. The consensus-based probability forecast map was prepared based on model forecasts at global as well as national levels synthesized through subjective expert assessment.
Note: South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) consensus statement can be obtained from the following link: http://www.meteorology.gov.mv/uploads/94e4451ad23909020c28b26ca3a13cb8.pdf