Consensus Statement on the Forecast for December 2015 – February 2016
According to this forecast, above normal rainfall is likely during the December 2015 to February 2016 Maldives region. This consensus forecast outlook precipitation over South Asia have been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. Currently strong El Niño conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is almost certain that El Nino conditions will continue to prevail during the winter season. However, it is recognized that there is uncertainty about the impacts of El Niño on the seasonal precipitation and temperature patterns of the region. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors can also affect the precipitation and temperature patterns over the region.